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The Future of Television We all make predictions. Some of us, however, are brazen enough to record and preserve them. Often, when predictions are recorded, they are either self- consciously preceded by disclaimers or caveats, or they are couched in qualifications. For example, Bill Gates prefaces the second edition of his book, The Road Ahead, by noting that his volume is "meant to be a serious book, although ten years from now it may not appear that way." He goes on to state that what he has said in the book "that turned out to be right will be considered obvious and what was wrong will be humorous." ( p. xv) This Web site provides an expanded version of an essay on the future of television that appears in MASS COMMUNICATION IN THE INFORMATION AGE (Northport, Ala.: Vision Press, 1996). The original essay was written back in 1994, and due to space constraints, it was fairly brief. This web page includes links, new developments, a bibliography, conflicting visions, and lots of added parenthetical thoughts. Any item contained within ( ) is an added comment. In addition to my periodic updates, I will also revisit the original essay to record my "hits and misses." On an annual basis, I'll provide year-end summations of significant events affecting the television industry, make amendments and corrective statements, and offer new predictions. My year-end comments for 1996 and my current amalgam of predictions appear at the end of the original essay or you may jump directly to them. (NEW NOTE: added 6/98 OK: I haven't added to this section in a while, but I want to keep it "frozen." Maybe I'll revisit it 25 years from the original publication date.) The Future of Television: AMENDED ESSAY Communication media are never truly static. Their technological base, the way in which they are used, and their role in and impact on our society are constantly evolving. There are periods in any medium's development, however, when change is especially dramatic and significant. Such transformative periods serve to demarcate stages in the life of a medium and typically elicit discussion concerning the future direction and fate of the medium. Television has entered such a phase. Recent and imminent technological advances, prompted primarily by the increasing digitization within the industry, government deregulation (to see the potential downside of deregulation click here) within the communication field, and changes in the composition and demands of media audiences, promise to help redefine our understanding of what television is and does. (See note on forecasting media.) In the future, television's traditional role as storyteller to the masses will remain. The economics of high quality production and the ubiquity of the medium will ensure that function. (For a good explanation of the influence of media economics on the evolution of new media, see W. Russsell Neuman's book The Future of the Mass Audience, Chapter 5, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1991.) (Those who foresee a quick demise of "broadcasting" might note that 1996 was a record year for the major TV networks. Reporting a 12% increase in advertising revenue over 1995, the networks raked in approximately $13 billion dollars in advertising revenue in 1996.) However, the fragmentation of the audience and the specialization in programming that began with the advent of cable will continue to personalize the medium. Tomorrow's consumers will have the opportunity to access a far greater variety of material via an even wider array of distribution schemes. Our televisions will tap into a global, interconnected, and fairly seamless infrastructure of wired and wireless networks. (It now seems clear that some of our sets will be connected to the Internet). In the near future, we'll use our television sets to access and retrieve new sorts of programming and information. Such material will be offered by the existing entrenched providers but will also be available from a host of new sources. (See these examples) Our televisions will serve as electronic classrooms, transaction terminals, electronic news stands, image libraries, home theaters, play centers. They will be used as information appliances. In the future, television will be even more omnipresent, yet the increased choices, selections and uses of television, will prompt households to utilize their sets in different ways. As the size and cost of computer chips continue to decline, most future television sets will undoubtedly become "smarter." Some forecasters have erred, however, in predicting that televisions and computers will completely converge, to the point where they no longer will be separate mediums. While the two technologies will continue to perform overlapping functions, they also will continue to perform distinct duties. We do not need a television to do word processing, nor do we need a computer on our desktop to display the evening's primetime offerings. Future televisions will, however, be upgradable; and some consumers may opt to purchase hybrid machines. (Examples). Consumers will have a plethora of television peripherals and accessories from which to choose. Black standardized set-top converter boxes will go the way of the AT&T standard black telephones of yesterday. Some viewers will utilize intelligent systems to help them sift through, monitor, regulate, and control a flood of incoming aural, visual, and textual information. Some will utilize voice recognition systems instead of the traditional remote to control their sets. Consumers will be able to connect their sets with numerous other devices: printers, image storage and playback devices, game units, PCs, telephones, fax machines, electronic mailboxes, security devices, the possibilities and configurations are endless. (Examples) In the future, some televisions will be very large, with enormous flat panel , high resolution screens, while some televisions will be pocket sized and highly personal. (SEE note) (See also The next medium). In sum, buying a television set in the future will in some ways resemble buying an automobile today. Customers will acquire the make(s), model(s), and options that they need and desire and that fit within their budget. So just as the content of TV will be personalized, our future receivers will be customized. Television has already entered a transitional period, and some of the developments alluded to above are not merely hypothetical - they have already begun. Much of the current hype, however, posits the transformation as complete and overnight. Even though many changes have already been set in motion by increased corporate activity and investment, there are numerous forces that continue to constrain momentum. (Student Exercise: Can you list some of these forces?) Change will also come at different rates for different segments of the population. For wealthy and adventurous innovators, change will come relatively fast. For others, change will be relatively slow and considerably less dramatic. |
